EIA: global refinery inputs fell 4.8 million b/d in 2Q26 and rose 1.8 million b/d in 3Q26
EIA quantifies a 4.8 million b/d fall in 2Q26 and a 1.8 million b/d rebound in 3Q26 using Kpler data.
- Urgency
- L3
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At a glance
On Nov 3, 2026 the U.S. EIA published a Today in Energy analysis using Kpler data that reports global crude oil refinery inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 and increased by 1.8 million b/d in the third quarter. The EIA attributes the 2Q26 decline in part to disruptions after conflict began in late February and says the 3Q26 increase reflected refiners adjusting to new trade flows.
- EIA quantifies a 4.8 million b/d fall in 2Q26 and a 1.8 million b/d rebound in 3Q26 using Kpler data.
CHRONOS Wire · November 4 · Alert 3
What happened
Global refinery processing fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 after the start of conflict in late February, then partially rebounded in the third quarter. The U.S. EIA published Kpler-based estimates quantifying a 4.8 million barrels per day decline in 2Q26 and a 1.8 million b/d increase in 3Q26.
Why it matters
The EIA figures document a large, conflict-associated change in global refinery throughput that may influence near-term refined-product availability and trade; monitor for revisions and further breakdowns in follow-up reports.
CHRONOS Bottom Line
EIA reports a large drop in global refinery inputs in 2Q26 and a partial recovery in 3Q26, quantified as minus 4.8 million b/d then plus 1.8 million b/d.
Full detail
What changed
The EIA Today in Energy analysis (Nov 3, 2026) published Kpler-based estimates showing global crude oil refinery inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels per day in 2Q26 and increased by 1.8 million b/d in 3Q26.
What is genuinely new
The EIA Today in Energy piece published Nov 3, 2026 presents Kpler-based estimates that quantify a 4.8 million b/d decline in global refinery inputs in 2Q26 and a 1.8 million b/d increase in 3Q26.
Detailed analysis
The EIA Today in Energy item provides quarter-on-quarter Kpler-based estimates showing a 4.8 million b/d decline in 2Q26 followed by a 1.8 million b/d increase in 3Q26. The release attributes the 2Q26 decline in part to disruptions following the start of conflict in late February and notes refiners adjusted trade flows in 3Q26, but does not quantify country-level net effects in the provided excerpts.
U.S. Impact
U.S. Impact assessment pending.