Macro Economy

Iraq has implemented a new exchange-rate structure that sets the public dollar rate at 1,520 dinars, roughly 14.5% weaker than the prior official rate, as disruption to oil exports from the regional war pressures government revenue and foreign-currency flows.

Iran's rial fell to a new record low near 2.688 million per U.S. dollar as the central bank moved to sell foreign currency through state banks, against a backdrop of sanctions, blockade pressure and inflation above 70%.

Eurostat's September flash estimate shows euro-area annual inflation accelerating to 3.8% from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation rising to 18.8%, materially strengthening the inflationary transmission from the global energy shock.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 in September, well below the roughly 90,000 consensus, while unemployment increased to 4.2%. Prior-month payroll estimates were also revised lower, materially weakening the near-term case for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October.

The Federal Reserve's preferred PCE inflation gauge rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% year over year, below the 3.7% annual consensus, while consumer spending jumped 0.9% month over month.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second-quarter annualized GDP growth to 2.2% from 1.5%, a materially larger economy than previously estimated, while first-quarter growth was also revised to 2.5% from 2.1%. Consumer spending and AI-related business investment were key supports.

September inflation readings accelerated more than expected across several major euro-area economies, with energy costs from the Iran-war shock driving headline rates materially above the ECB's 2% target and increasing pressure for additional rate hikes.

The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest level in more than 12 years and well below the 89.2 Reuters consensus forecast, while households became more pessimistic about business and labor-market conditions.

Russian budget documents show planned 2027 defense spending of 17.1 trillion roubles, 27% above the previously budgeted amount, alongside higher deficits and borrowing.